Hi all,
Welcome to the second part of the mobile content coverage.
Today, Frank Dickson from iSuppli will be visiting here. Frank is Principal Analyst, Multimedia Content Services. He covers markets for digital video and home entertainment, with focus areas including IPTV, video on demand, home networking and broadband video.
Hi Frank. How are you today?
Life is good. Thanks for asking.
What has been successful to date and what promises to sell in the future?
In addition to premium content, messaging continues to grow strongly worldwide but with significant regional variation. The mature country markets of Western Europe and Asia saw growth, but the growth in the Americas almost astounding. Growth is strongest among the US operators, several of which saw revenue associated with messaging double in 2006 compared to 2005. Messaging growth is being driven by both increased p2p messaging usage as well as increased premium SMS associated with mobile content purchases and participative TV.
What are the key drivers for market growth for different types of mobile content and entertainment?
The future is all about video! The mobile video market continues to develop, but remains highly fragmented on nearly all fronts. Business models are uncertain. Technology standards are uncertain. Consumer usage models are uncertain. Content rights need to be resolved. Geographic differences are significant in both content consumption and regulatory environment. As a result, the mobile video market will take time to develop, but offers the biggest potential upside. Competitors across the value chain should participate early to learn and develop a position in the market. Competitors should set expectations appropriately for a highly volatile market with high uncertainty in the short term. Agility will be key to adapt to rapid change.
Many state that widespread consumer demand has lagged after a rapid penetration rate. Why? What are the barriers for market growth of market for mobile content?
The major barrier to growth of mobile content is leakage, as in revenue leakage. Approximately, 5% to 10% of transactions turn out as bad transactions due to fraud, lack of funds on a prepaid card or delivery problems. Another 5% to 15% of good transactions result in refunds due to shady marketing practices, overly protective wireless operators not wanting a customer to have a bad content experience or a lack of transaction visibility for customer service. Wait, did I mention the customer service support call costs? There is money leaking everywhere.
One of the problems is that the wireless operators want to be in the center of the purchase experience. The billing systems however are built to service reoccurring wireless subscription customers. Wireless operators making themselves the nexus of mobile commerce transactions creates a problem as they are now providing high volume transaction clearing services like those provided by Visa, PayPal and others. Frankly, processing financial transactions is not at the heart of their distinctive competencies.
How will the services evolve over time?
The mobile music market is among the most dynamic content categories worldwide. Polyphonic ringtones are receding with a transition to realtones. However, on a worldwide basis, the overall ringtone category appears to be slowing.
Ringback tones continue to gain strength in Asia, but haven't migrated significantly to other geographic regions yet. Video ringtones are among the newest services positioned as a next-generation ringtone.
The emergence of full track download music services continues, with operators worldwide deploying services. Dramatic growth of these services remains mixed regionally and by operator. Consumers are still slow to build awareness, while operators have significant challenges to put together a cohesive and easy-to-use full track music storefront. Overall, in the emerging battle between music phones and mp3/pmp players, the music store and music delivery platform still significantly favors mp3-oriented services.
What applications will drive the market in the next few years?
We believe that there is strong long term growth in the mobile full-track-download market. However, outside of Asia, the inflection point for dramatic growth is still developing. Overall, iSuppli reduced it’s full track download forecast in this quarters tracker, while increasing our outlook for mobile music streaming services. Full track downloads will continue to be among the strongest mobile content markets, while streaming music services will segment the market somewhat and take advantage the subscription-based business model which aligns ideally with mobile operator business models.
For example, we did end-user primary research to provide more insight into consumer demand. Approximately two-third so respondents listened to music on they PMP; however, only 10% listened on their phones. This suggests their may be some struggle converting individuals from a usage specific device mentality to unbiquitious device mentality.
A big thanks to Frank Dickson for this great interview! :)